22. A
force 
is applied to a crank shown in
the figure. The shaft 
fixed at 
has
a diameter of 
and a length of 
. The arm 
has
a length of 
. If the yield strength of the
shaft is 
, and 
and
are independent, determine the probability
of failure using the First Order Second Moment Method. Use the
distortion-energy theroy.
Answer:
